The better-than-average type of overoptimism can be illustrated by the perceived likelihood of company success. This phenomenon has been named the better- than- average effect and may be seen as a type of overoptimism. Footnote 1 A typical finding is that most people regard themselves as better than average, particularly in completing relatively simple tasks and tasks where they have exceeded a minimum skill level.
Project management dangers of over optimism drivers#
Married people predict a too low likelihood of getting divorced, car drivers think too highly of their driving skills, and students tend to believe they will obtain better grades on exams than they actually receive. People tend to be overoptimistic about many things. Overoptimism, as we use the term here, does not always lead to overoptimistic predictions. Even if it is very unlikely that Patricia will earn first place in the tournament, it is still possible that she will be extremely lucky and win and, consequently, gave a correct prediction. If Patricia is an average chess player but rates her chess skill too highly and predicts that she will win a chess tournament where she is far from the best player, she is overoptimistic. If optimism is expecting things to go well, which they sometimes do, we may use the word overoptimism when the expected positive outcome is unwarranted, for instance, due to thinking too highly about one’s own skill and likelihood of success. The Oxford English Dictionary describes optimism as ‘hopefulness and confidence about the future or the success of something’. To clarify the differences between being optimistic or overoptimistic and making optimistic time predictions, let us start by looking into the concepts of optimism and overoptimism. Describing too low, or overoptimistic, time predictions as caused by overoptimism, in the rose-coloured glasses sense, not only is incorrect but may also stop us from seeking other explanations of time overrun besides overoptimism. Lack of knowledge, miscalculation during the prediction process, and bad luck in the execution of the project are examples of alternative reasons for too low time predictions. This does not mean that an optimistic or overoptimistic view on time usage was the cause of the too low time prediction. We usually say that a time prediction is overoptimistic when the actual time usage is greater than the predicted time usage.
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